Election Forecast 2024
Map
UPDATED ON SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 — The map on this page, powered by 270towin.com, shows a hypothetical scenario of what the Electoral College results might look like on Election Night 2024, based on our own evaluations at HawaiiLocal.News. Even with the Election only 40 days away as of this writing, polls alone are difficult metrics to go by when making predictions. We're not soothsayers and can't with absolute certainty say one candidate will win out over the other, but we can confidently estimate the probabilities that a specific outcome will occur. The darker the shade of red or blue on the map, the more confident we are in the respective candidate's ability to carry a particular state.
Breakdown By Electoral Votes
KEY: State/District (Electoral Votes) Projected Winner (Estimated Probability)
Alabama (9) Trump (.997)
Alaska (3) Trump (.809)
Arizona (11) Harris (.551)
Arkansas (6) Trump (.996)
California (54) Harris (.999)
Colorado (10) Harris (.983)
Connecticut (7) Harris (.988)
Delaware (3) Harris (.991)
Washington, D.C. (3) Harris (.999)
Florida (30) Trump (.793)
Georgia (16) Trump (.532)
Hawaii (4) Harris (.998)
Idaho (4) Trump (.999)
Illinois (19) Harris (.994)
Indiana (11) Trump (.996)
Iowa (6) Trump (.918)
Kansas (6) Trump (.931)
Kentucky (8) Trump (.997)
Louisiana (8) Trump (.991)
Maine (State) (2) Harris (.977)
Maine CD-1 (1) Harris (.998)
Maine CD-2 (1) Trump (.756)
Maryland (10) Harris (.999)
Massachusetts (11) Harris (.999)
Michigan (15) Harris (.711)
Minnesota (10) Harris (.944)
Mississippi (6) Trump (.941)
Missouri (10) Trump (.982)
Montana (4) Trump (.928)
Nebraska (State) (2) Trump (.998)
Nebraska CD-1 (1) Trump (.938)
Nebraska CD-2 (1) Harris (.859)
Nebraska CD-3 (1) Trump (.998)
Nevada (6) Harris (.734)
New Hampshire (4) Harris (.945)
New Jersey (14) Harris (.988)
New Mexico (5) Harris (.967)
New York (28) Harris (.998)
North Carolina (16) Trump (.554)
North Dakota (3) Trump (.999)
Ohio (17) Trump (.933)
Oklahoma (7) Trump (.999)
Oregon (8) Harris (.985)
Pennsylvania (19) Harris (.597)
Rhode Island (4) Harris (.997)
South Carolina (9) Trump (.971)
South Dakota (3) Trump (.998)
Tennessee (11) Trump (.991)
Texas (40) Trump (.753)
Utah (6) Trump (.949)
Vermont (3) Harris (.998)
Virginia (13) Harris (.949)
Washington (12) Harris (.998)
West Virginia (4) Trump (.999)
Wisconsin (10) Harris (.522)
Wyoming (3) Trump (.999)
Expectations
This is our final forecast for the 2024 Presidential Election. Short of any major upsets or unexpected curve balls, we will not be updating our model even as new polling continues to be released. While the estimated probabilities of each candidate winning a particular state will in all likelihood fluctuate to some degree, HawaiiLocal.News is confident in our estimates, and we expect the candidates' chances to remain within close range of our projections.
According to our forecast, the state of Pennsylvania is a must-win. Without it, Vice President Kamala Harris would need to win Georgia or North Carolina at a minimum. Former President Donald Trump would have to shore up support in both Wisconsin and Arizona in order to go over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Regardless of who wins, we expect the margins of victory in Wisconsin and North Carolina to be tight, with either candidate winning by potentially less than 10,000 votes. Harris does have a slight edge in Pennsylvania, considering the populations of its two major cities (Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) have remained relatively stable. We are less optimistic about her chances in Wisconsin despite polling to the contrary, as Milwaukee has experienced a slight population decline. We do, however, expect Harris to win its 10 electoral votes, but this will hinge on voter turnout at or above what it was in 2020.
Since the main focus of this site is Hawaii, it would be in bad form to leave it out, even though it is all but guaranteed for Harris to win the Aloha State's four electoral votes by a wide double-digit margin. It is of interest to note that Hawaii was only one of six states where Trump's margin increased in 2020 from 2016 despite an overwhelming loss. We don't expect Hawaii to become a swing state any time soon, but these small movements in voting patterns can sometimes be the first signs of broader trends that could take years, if not decades to materialize. Food for thought.
Stay tuned for live updates and election results on Tuesday, November 5.
Methodology
Many election forecasts make their predictions based on public opinion polls alone. HawaiiLocal.News does not. While shrinking down Election coverage to a horse race or popularity contest can make it simpler and (in theory) more exciting, this sort of rudimentary analysis ignores important variables that can determine outcomes.
Although polls are an important part of election analysis, their results tend to be skewed in favor of conservative candidates, especially early on due to their reliance on self-selective surveys and landline telephone calls. Aggregate polling data are more insightful than results from individual polls, but they still don't paint a complete picture of what we might see when people actually start voting.
In addition to aggregate polling data as they come in, HawaiiLocal.News examines previous voting trends, interstate migration patterns, voter registration habits, margin swings, vote tallies from past elections, population change estimates, candidate approval ratings, and how well or poorly each state protects against voter suppression tactics such as prohibitions on mail-in voting, laws against ballot collection in remote areas, voter roll purges, and forcing in-person voting on automated machines with no paper trail.
Based on all of this information, our goal is to provide a more realistic analysis of what to expect this November, rather than jumping to predetermined conclusions that are designed to coddle one set of political sensibilities over another.
Fed. & State
Senate GOP (.774)
House Democrats (.528)
Hawaii State Legislature Democrats (.999)
All State Legislatures GOP (.945)
All State Governors GOP (.948)
Contingent Election
Per the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution, a contingent election occurs when neither candidate receives the necessary 270 votes for an Electoral College victory. In such an unlikely scenario, the House of Representatives chooses the President by way of state delegation, meaning that each state votes as a single entity regardless of how many representatives it has in Congress. The Senate is tasked with selecting the Vice President in a contingent election.
We would rate the chances of such a contingent election occurring in 2024 more likely than previous election cycles, while still understanding that the probability of this happening is pretty slim, putting it somewhere near 3 percent or less.
Since Maine and Nebraska allocate some of their electoral votes based on who wins in their congressional districts, certain combinations in the Electoral College could result in a contingent election. The other, more troubling scenario that could force a contingent election relies on the idea that rogue secretaries of state and other officials might disrupt or refuse the certification of electoral votes by their own deadlines and leave the joint session in Congress—tasked with counting the electoral votes—short an accurate tally or a clear winner.
If a contingent election were to take place in 2024, we would rate it very likely that Trump would win the presidency, as Republicans will almost surely have a solid majority in the House of Representatives if each state is forced to vote as a single bloc, even if they no longer have the majority of seats.
Below, we have provided a few unlikely, but not impossible electoral maps that would result in a contingent election, with the changes from 2020 noted.