Election Forecast 2024
Map
UPDATED ON AUGUST 7, 2024 — The map on this page, powered by 270towin.com, shows a hypothetical scenario of what the Electoral College results might look like on Election Night 2024, based on our own evaluations at HawaiiLocal.News. The map will be adjusted and updated as new data become available. Since the Election is still 90 days away as of this writing, polls alone are difficult metrics to go by when making predictions. We're not soothsayers and can't with absolute certainty say one candidate will win out over the other, but we can confidently estimate the probabilities that a specific outcome will occur. The darker the shade of red or blue on the map, the more confident we are in the respective candidate's ability to carry a particular state.
Breakdown By Electoral Votes
Alabama (9) Trump (Safe)
Alaska (3) Trump (Lean)
Arizona (11) Harris (Tilt)
Arkansas (6) Trump (Safe)
California (54) Harris (Safe)
Colorado (10) Harris (Safe)
Connecticut (7) Harris (Safe)
Delaware (3) Harris (Safe)
Washington, D.C. (3) Harris (Safe)
Florida (30) Trump (Lean)
Georgia (16) Trump (Tilt)
Hawaii (4) Harris (Safe)
Idaho (4) Trump (Safe)
Illinois (19) Harris (Safe)
Indiana (11) Trump (Safe)
Iowa (6) Trump (Likely)
Kansas (6) Trump (Likely)
Kentucky (8) Trump (Safe)
Louisiana (8) Trump (Safe)
Maine (State) (2) Harris (Safe)
Maine CD-1 (1) Harris (Safe)
Maine CD-2 (1) Trump (Lean)
Maryland (10) Harris (Safe)
Massachusetts (11) Harris (Safe)
Michigan (15) Harris (Lean)
Minnesota (10) Harris (Likely)
Mississippi (6) Trump (Likely)
Missouri (10) Trump (Safe)
Montana (4) Trump (Likely)
Nebraska (State) (2) Trump (Safe)
Nebraska CD-1 (1) Trump (Likely)
Nebraska CD-2 (1) Harris (Likely)
Nebraska CD-3 (1) Trump (Safe)
Nevada (6) Harris (Lean)
New Hampshire (4) Harris (Likely)
New Jersey (14) Harris (Safe)
New Mexico (5) Harris (Safe)
New York (28) Harris (Safe)
North Carolina (16) Trump (Tilt)
North Dakota (3) Trump (Safe)
Ohio (17) Trump (Likely)
Oklahoma (7) Trump (Safe)
Oregon (8) Harris (Safe)
Pennsylvania (19) Harris (Tilt)
Rhode Island (4) Harris (Safe)
South Carolina (9) Trump (Safe)
South Dakota (3) Trump (Safe)
Tennessee (11) Trump (Safe)
Texas (40) Trump (Lean)
Utah (6) Trump (Likely)
Vermont (3) Harris (Safe)
Virginia (13) Harris (Likely)
Washington (12) Harris (Safe)
West Virginia (4) Trump (Safe)
Wisconsin (10) Harris (Tilt)
Wyoming (3) Trump (Safe)
Expectations
Our adjusted election forecast is now up, as presumptive Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris has chosen Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. With a reinvigorated voting bloc, the Democrats and Team Harris are sure to give former President Donald Trump and his oligarch megadonors a run for their money. Even with this newfound enthusiasm, we still expect the margins of victory to be tight in the tipping-point states.
The outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election will hinge mostly on voter turnout, rather than the intrinsic qualities of the candidates themselves. A former prosecutor and a likable governor running against a convicted felon and a memoirist reborn as an evangelizing Republican senator should be no contest, but this is America and politics can get a little weird.
Despite a vast network of keyboard warriors and vocal feet-stompers puffing their chests for Trump, a majority of Americans reject the current Republican ethos, even if that repudiation appears at least to be quieter than their opponents' doubling down on resurrecting a mythical past that never truly existed. Sorry Mr. Norquist (yeah, we're dating ourselves), but you can't have a 1950s-style America without the 1950s-style tax code that made it possible. More Americans are finally waking up to the pitiful farce the GOP has become after the far-right lunatic fringe wrested control from its more moderate leaders, and as far as the popular vote is concerned, the Republicans aren't winning this one.
This does not mean, however, that the Republicans have zero paths to the White House. As the winner of this election will come down to less than 100,000 votes in just five or six states due to the configuration of the Electoral College, even a slight drop in voter turnout could give Trump the mathematical edge he needs to clinch a small victory in Pennsylvania. This would give him the 270 electoral votes required for an Electoral College win, based on our projections. If voter turnout exceeds what it was in 2020, Harris will be the likely winner.
Methodology
Many election forecasts make their predictions based on public opinion polls alone. HawaiiLocal.News does not. While shrinking down Election coverage to a horse race or popularity contest can make it simpler and (in theory) more exciting, this sort of rudimentary analysis ignores important variables that can determine outcomes.
Although polls are an important part of election analysis, their results tend to be skewed in favor of conservative candidates, especially early on due to their reliance on self-selective surveys and landline telephone calls. Aggregate polling data are more insightful than results from individual polls, but they still don't paint a complete picture of what we might see when people actually start voting.
In addition to aggregate polling data as they come in, HawaiiLocal.News examines previous voting trends, interstate migration patterns, voter registration habits, margin swings, vote tallies from past elections, population change estimates, candidate approval ratings, and how well or poorly each state protects against voter suppression tactics such as prohibitions on mail-in voting, laws against ballot collection in remote areas, voter roll purges, and forcing in-person voting on automated machines with no paper trail.
Based on all of this information, our goal is to provide a more realistic analysis of what to expect this November, rather than jumping to predetermined conclusions that are designed to coddle one set of political sensibilities over another.
Fed. & State
Senate GOP (Lean)
House Democrats (Tilt)
Hawaii State Legislature Democrats (Safe)
All State Legislatures GOP (Likely)
All State Governors GOP (Likely)
Contingent Election
Per the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution, a contingent election occurs when neither candidate receives the necessary 270 votes for an Electoral College victory. In such an unlikely scenario, the House of Representatives chooses the President by way of state delegation, meaning that each state votes as a single entity regardless of how many representatives it has in Congress. The Senate is tasked with selecting the Vice President in a contingent election.
We would rate the chances of such a contingent election occurring in 2024 more likely than previous election cycles, while still understanding that the probability of this happening is pretty slim, putting it somewhere near 3 percent or less.
Since Maine and Nebraska allocate some of their electoral votes based on who wins in their congressional districts, certain combinations in the Electoral College could result in a contingent election. The other, more troubling scenario that could force a contingent election relies on the idea that rogue secretaries of state and other officials might disrupt or refuse the certification of electoral votes by their own deadlines and leave the joint session in Congress—tasked with counting the electoral votes—short an accurate tally or a clear winner.
If a contingent election were to take place in 2024, we would rate it very likely that Trump would win the presidency, as Republicans will almost surely have a solid majority in the House of Representatives if each state is forced to vote as a single bloc, even if they no longer have the majority of seats.
Below, we have provided a few unlikely, but not impossible electoral maps that would result in a contingent election, with the changes from 2020 noted.